Sonntag, 20. Mai 2012

Boris Tadic loses presidency. Why?

Well, Boris Tadic just lost his presidency. What a shock! I was predicting that he'd win by 2% before the elections started, but was waiting to see the turnout to post the prediction on FB. When I saw it was low, I knew things were going sour.

Why did he lose? Several reasons. Let's start from the wasted votes. By this, I mean both doodles on the ballot AND my vote.

Why is my vote wasted? Poor government administration, is all. If I wanted to vote, being abroad an all, I had to register two weeks before the elections, letting some schmuck know that I want to vote. And not only that, I also had to travel to Vienna to cast my vote. Well, gentlemen bureaucrats, I'm not inclined to do deal with administration any more than I absolutely have to, so F**K YOU! That's why you lost mine and many more votes of young people who are getting their education or whatever abroad. And I think these votes are mostly DS votes.

There were 39,000 doodled ballots. Boris Tadic lost by 33,000 votes. Well done. So, now what?
I can't believe there are people so stupid to think things "can't be any worse than they already are" (an actual comment on B92 from someone who congratulated Nikolic). THINGS CAN ALWAYS GET WORSE! That's the logic of it - things move from one state to another, the latter being less good than the former. It happens all the time.

Tadic also lost because his party led a campaign that doesn't suit the profile of his voters, nor that of Serbian citizens. As can be seen from Nikolic's success, people respond to campaigns that energize people around a certain issue (change in most cases). A campaign that claimed things will remain the same (with the same people), and maybe slightly get better over time, is doomed for failure. It surprises me no one in DS recognized that the messages need to be more optimistic and more engaging. After all, it is exactly how they themselves ousted Milosevic. Nikolic recognized this and applied it.

I think they failed to recognize this because people in DS didn't really want any changes. They lost their compass, which is what usually happens to people once they get power, and they had power for far too many years to remain sane. Not that I can claim these people were honest before they became powerful, but they certainly didn't get any more honest after. My point is, being in a position that allows you to steal, you're not rewarded to promote anti-corruption measures, even to the extent of "neglecting" to seriously address the issue in a re-election campaign and give firm promises of change (important word). BIG mistake.

So, what really happened, and why is someone like Nikolic seemingly more popular than someone like Tadic? It's because people in Serbia hate success in other people. They can't bear that someone is apparently more successful than they are, as this gives them the perception of failure. I argue that Tadic is the prototype of a successful man. Everything about him is squeaky clean, and polished in order to project this message. The thing is people envy that. They downright hate it. However, people recognize the fact that the president should be like this. He represents all of us, especially in foreigners' eyes. They are willing to support such a person, as long as this image in untarnished. Once they see, taste or smell blood, they can't help but grab the opportunity to see the mighty fall.
Nikolic went for exactly this - from the get-go his campaign was all about "we know we'll win". Tadic was baffled, and counted that people will see through this, but they didn't. They bought into it big time. A small crack in his pristine finish was enough for Serbian voters, especially the very low - and also very bitter - to write Tadic off and support someone everybody knows isn't nearly as good as Tadic.

Biggest error of Tadic? Not enough house cleaning in his own yard. That's something you don't introduce over time - you do it from the start. Everybody should know there can't be any "kraduckanje" or else everybody does it. But, I think that's an inherited problem, not something Tadic himself introduced.

What will happen next time? Will a democrat win because people will see how bad Nikolic is (maybe people will mobilize for the next elections, which they failed to do in this one, for various reasons), or will DS lose even the Parliamentary elections because Nikolic will blame the democrats for all the problems, claiming he hasn't got enough power to effectuate changes? We'll see.

1 Kommentar:

  1. 2 things: about the Serbians hating success on others.... that's human nature my friend. Unfortunately that's the way the cookie crumbles in every corner of this world. And this is exactly why whoever comes and sells his/her audience a "Robin-Hood" economy (usually socialists) more often than not win the elections. But this is everywhere in the world. And secondly, about the idiotcracy, you forgot to add the expensive return Ticket to Vienna, which is, by the way, over 70 Euros!!! Insane!! (I travelled with Polski Bus with Wifi included, from Poland to Vienna for 25 cents... yes: one quarter of a Euro) So, it's not only administrative stupidocracy, but also the high monetary costs involved (not to mention time)